CAR Signals SELL On 3 Hour Chart

The Technical Analysis

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Published: March 19, 2022 at 3:34 PM EDT

On March 18, 2022, Avis Budget Group Inc stock (CAR) achieved a SELL signal on 5 of our proprietary algorithms indicating near-term downward movement for CAR. Based on historically similar occurrences, the likelihood of this near-term movement is very high. Although this analysis may be technical, it clearly lays out targets for pending price action for CAR. The chart of all potential movement is at the bottom of this article.

Algorithm Version 1

This algorithm determines overbought and oversold conditions based on four criteria occurring at exactly the same time. Each condition is rare to occur by themselves, the frequency of them all occurring at the same time is quite rare. The SAG Gauge discussed below is built into this algorithm and it will occur at the same time this algorithm triggers a BUY or SELL signal.

Algorithm Version 1 SELL - CAR 3 Hour Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for CAR on 3 hour charts 93.333% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 0.75% over the next 40 3 Hour bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 5 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 18 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 10.0% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 6.001%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 73.333% of the time, greater than five percent 53.333% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 40.0% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 86.667% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 1 to 6 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 1.243% to 1.807% beyond the signal closing price of 278.865.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 278.865, the target price is between 233.22 and 272.32 over the next 10 to 28 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 282.33 to 283.9 over the first 1 to 6 trading bars.

Algorithm Version 2

This algorithm determines overbought and oversold conditions similar to Version 1. This algorithm contains the same elements as Version 1 plus one more condition. This will signal at the same time as Version 1 and the SAG Gauge. All conditions are rare to occur by themselves, the frequency of them all occurring at the same time is even more rare than Version 1.

Algorithm Version 2 SELL - CAR 3 Hour Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for CAR on 3 hour charts 100.0% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 0.75% over the next 40 3 Hour bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 12 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 28 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 12.963% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 16.867%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 80.0% of the time, greater than five percent 60.0% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 60.0% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 100.0% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 1 to 6 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 1.29% to 1.807% beyond the signal closing price of 278.865.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 278.865, the target price is between 228.35 and 272.92 over the next 24 to 39 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 282.46 to 283.9 over the first 1 to 6 trading bars.

Multi-Time Frame Algorithm

This algorithm determines when price direction reverses at the same time on the Daily and 3 Hour chart. There are two buy and sell points for this algorithm. An aggressive signal occurs when price direction changes on both charts at the same time. A conservative signal occurs after the second bar confirms price direction has changed. Aggressive signals can happen without conservative signals. Conservative signals only occur when an aggressive signal also occurs at the same time. The signals appear on other time frame charts in the same position a cross-over occurs on the 3 Hour and Daily charts.

Multi-Time Frame Aggressive SELL - CAR 3 Hour Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for CAR on 3 hour charts 91.667% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 0.75% over the next 40 3 Hour bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 1 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 18 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 9.906% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 5.691%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 85.417% of the time, greater than five percent 56.25% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 33.333% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 85.417% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 1 to 5 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 0.639% to 3.178% beyond the signal closing price of 278.865.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 278.865, the target price is between 245.83 and 269.07 over the next 4 to 34 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 280.65 to 287.73 over the first 1 to 5 trading bars.

SAG Gauge

This algorithm determines overbought and oversold conditions based on separate conditions all occurring at the same time. There are two buy and sell points for this algorithm. An aggressive signal occurs after a top or bottom is confirmed when technically reading the equity's chart. A conservative signal occurs after a 2-bar confirmation takes place. Aggressive signals can happen without conservative signals. Conservative signals only occur when an aggressive signal also occurs at the same time.

SAG Gauge Aggressive SELL - CAR 3 Hour Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for CAR on 3 hour charts 86.582% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 0.75% over the next 40 3 Hour bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 1 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 16 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 7.629% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 5.194%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 73.165% of the time, greater than five percent 44.304% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 21.266% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 80.759% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 1 to 9 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 0.993% to 3.627% beyond the signal closing price of 278.865.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 278.865, the target price is between 251.79 and 271.22 over the next 5 to 31 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 281.63 to 288.98 over the first 1 to 9 trading bars.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence Extrema

This algorithm follows the common moving average convergence divergence (MACD). It signals a BUY when the largest negative divergences begin to reduce. It likewise signals a SELL when the largest positive divergences begin to reduce as well. There are additional factors required for an actual signal to remove false signals.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence Extrema SELL - CAR 3 Hour Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for CAR on 3 hour charts 86.471% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 0.75% over the next 40 3 Hour bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 1 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 17 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 8.095% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 5.867%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 72.941% of the time, greater than five percent 47.255% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 23.137% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 84.706% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 1 to 8 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 0.863% to 3.594% beyond the signal closing price of 278.865.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 278.865, the target price is between 249.2 and 270.74 over the next 6 to 32 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 281.27 to 288.89 over the first 1 to 8 trading bars.

Summarization of Data

Based on all of the historical datapoints, this analysis has settled on the most likely courses of movement. The red boxes in the image below indicate the likely location of a rise if the signal is not immediately accurate. The green boxes likely hold the extent of signal accuracy. The larger boxes contain all movements aligned with historical data. The smaller box is comprised of the likely half of the median historical data. In this instance, half of the historical data shows the stock may first move up between 281.63 and 287.73. This is the small red box. Likewise, half of the historical target end points finish in the smaller green box. In this instance, the target bottom is likely between 245.83 and 271.22.

Chart displaying Reversals and Targets for CAR

View this interactive chart on TradingView to see where the stock currently is for this idea.

DISCLOSURE: The algorithms and historical accuracy percentages mentioned in these articles are for reference only. Anything can happen in the future when it comes to market movement. Historical price action is not always indicative of future movement. Just because the signals may have a high degree of accuracy, they can always fail. Traders assume all risk to their assets when investing in short or long-term opportunities.

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