KR Signals SELL On Daily Chart

The Technical Analysis

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Published: August 25, 2021 at 08:40 PM EDT

On August 24, 2021, The Kroger Company stock (KR) achieved a SELL signal on 5 of our proprietary algorithms indicating near-term downward movement for KR. Based on historically similar occurrences, the likelihood of this near-term movement is very high. Although this analysis may be technical, it clearly lays out targets for pending price action for KR. The chart of all potential movement is at the bottom of this article.

Algorithm Version 1

This algorithm determines overbought and oversold conditions based on four criteria occurring at exactly the same time. Each condition is rare to occur by themselves, the frequency of them all occurring at the same time is quite rare. The SAG Gauge discussed below is built into this algorithm and it will occur at the same time this algorithm triggers a BUY or SELL signal.

Algorithm Version 1 SELL - KR Daily Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for KR on daily charts 83.333% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 1% over the next 35 Daily bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 1 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 14 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 8.545% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 8.478%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 83.333% of the time, greater than five percent 66.667% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 25.0% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 58.333% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 4 to 8 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 1.751% to 4.995% beyond the signal closing price of 45.75.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 45.75, the target price is between 40.93 and 43.06 over the next 12 to 20 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 46.55 to 48.04 over the first 4 to 8 trading bars.

Algorithm Version 2

This algorithm determines overbought and oversold conditions similar to Version 1. This algorithm contains the same elements as Version 1 plus one more condition. This will signal at the same time as Version 1 and the SAG Gauge. All conditions are rare to occur by themselves, the frequency of them all occurring at the same time is even more rare than Version 1.

Algorithm Version 2 SELL - KR Daily Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for KR on daily charts 88.889% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 1% over the next 35 Daily bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 1 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 14 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 8.467% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 8.478%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 88.889% of the time, greater than five percent 66.667% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 22.222% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 66.667% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 4 to 8 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 2.624% to 5.182% beyond the signal closing price of 45.75.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 45.75, the target price is between 41.12 and 42.93 over the next 12 to 23 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 46.95 to 48.12 over the first 4 to 8 trading bars.

SAG Gauge

This algorithm determines overbought and oversold conditions based on separate conditions all occurring at the same time. There are two buy and sell points for this algorithm. An aggressive signal occurs after a top or bottom is confirmed when technically reading the equity's chart. A conservative signal occurs after a 2-bar confirmation takes place. Aggressive signals can happen without conservative signals. Conservative signals only occur when an aggressive signal also occurs at the same time.

SAG Gauge Aggressive SELL - KR Daily Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for KR on daily charts 86.774% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 1% over the next 35 Daily bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 1 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 15 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 8.376% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 5.599%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 76.774% of the time, greater than five percent 50.0% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 24.194% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 75.161% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 1 to 7 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 0.866% to 3.367% beyond the signal closing price of 45.75.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 45.75, the target price is between 41.0 and 44.36 over the next 7 to 26 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 46.15 to 47.29 over the first 1 to 7 trading bars.

SAG Gauge Conservative SELL - KR Daily Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for KR on daily charts 86.802% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 1% over the next 35 Daily bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 1 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 14 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 8.192% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 5.597%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 75.888% of the time, greater than five percent 49.239% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 22.589% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 76.396% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 1 to 7 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 0.761% to 3.384% beyond the signal closing price of 45.75.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 45.75, the target price is between 41.09 and 44.37 over the next 6 to 25 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 46.1 to 47.3 over the first 1 to 7 trading bars.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence Extrema

This algorithm follows the common moving average convergence divergence (MACD). It signals a BUY when the largest negative divergences begin to reduce. It likewise signals a SELL when the largest positive divergences begin to reduce as well. There are additional factors required for an actual signal to remove false signals.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence Extrema SELL - KR Daily Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for KR on daily charts 84.361% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 1% over the next 35 Daily bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 1 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 14 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 7.983% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 5.724%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 74.449% of the time, greater than five percent 48.238% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 24.89% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 71.806% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 1 to 8 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 1.04% to 3.863% beyond the signal closing price of 45.75.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 45.75, the target price is between 40.85 and 44.38 over the next 5 to 26 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 46.23 to 47.52 over the first 1 to 8 trading bars.

BONUS ANALYSIS

This stock has seen simultaneous SELL signals of all 5 indicators in this article on nine occasions going back to 1968. Everytime Algorithm 2 is triggered, all indicators are also triggered. Therefore the target price boxes outlined in Algorithm 2's analysis are separately called out in the graphic for this article as potential move locations. It is recommended to monitor movement to these boxes as there is some overlap with the other target boxes.

Summarization of Data

Based on all of the historical datapoints, this analysis has settled on the most likely courses of movement. The red boxes in the image below indicate the likely location of a rise if the signal is not immediately accurate. The green boxes likely hold the extent of signal accuracy. The larger boxes contain all movements aligned with historical data. The smaller box is comprised of the likely half of the median historical data. In this instance, half of the historical data shows the stock may first move up between 46.23 and 47.52. This is the small red box. Likewise, half of the historical target end points finish in the smaller green box. In this instance, the target bottom is likely between 41.0 and 44.36.

Chart displaying Reversals and Targets for KR

View this interactive chart on TradingView to see where the stock currently is for this idea.

DISCLOSURE: The algorithms and historical accuracy percentages mentioned in these articles are for reference only. Anything can happen in the future when it comes to market movement. Historical price action is not always indicative of future movement. Just because the signals may have a high degree of accuracy, they can always fail. Traders assume all risk to their assets when investing in short or long-term opportunities.

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