NFG Signals SELL On Hourly Chart

The Technical Analysis

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Published: March 26, 2022 at 3:52 PM EDT

On March 25, 2022, National Fuel Gas Company stock (NFG) achieved a SELL signal on 1 of our proprietary algorithms indicating near-term downward movement for NFG. Based on historically similar occurrences, the likelihood of this near-term movement is very high. Although this analysis may be technical, it clearly lays out targets for pending price action for NFG. The chart of all potential movement is at the bottom of this article.

Relative Strength Index 3x Extrema

This algorithm follows the common Relative Strength Index with a shorter length. It signals when extreme overbought and oversold conditions occur. This particular algorithm signals rarely but maintains one of the best accuracy levels of all my algorithms.

Relative Strength Index 3x Extrema SELL - NFG Hourly Chart Accuracy

This algorithm accurately identifies SELL points for NFG on hourly charts 97.674% of the time it signals. A successful signal means the equity price moves down at least 0.4% over the next 50 Hourly bars. When the algorithm properly performs, success is seen at least 2 trading bars after the signal closing price with a median max gain occurring around 26 trading bars after the signal bar. Successful signals see average reversals of 3.85% from the signal bar closing price and median reversals of 3.298%. The equity reverses greater than two percent 74.419% of the time, greater than five percent 22.093% of the time, and moves beyond ten percent 2.326% of occurrences. The signal does not necessarily mean an immediate price reversal will occur. Price reversal is delayed 96.512% of the time. In these instances, the reversals do not obey the signal and begin sizable downward movement for an additional 2 to 14 bars after the triggering signal occurs. This delay can see the equity rise 0.395% to 1.688% beyond the signal closing price of 68.04.

Analysis Based on This Section

Based on the signal closing price of 68.04, the target price is between 64.94 and 66.65 over the next 15 to 44 bars after the signal. However, the equity may first rise toward a price in the range of 68.31 to 69.19 over the first 2 to 14 trading bars.

Summarization of Data

Based on all of the historical datapoints, this analysis has settled on the most likely courses of movement. The red boxes in the image below indicate the likely location of a rise if the signal is not immediately accurate. The green boxes likely hold the extent of signal accuracy. The larger boxes contain all movements aligned with historical data. The smaller box is comprised of half the median historical data. Movement here is possible but not guaranteed. In this instance, half of the historical data shows the stock may first move up between 68.31 and 69.19. This is the small red box. Likewise, half of the historical target end points finish in the smaller green box. In this instance, the target bottom is likely between 64.94 and 66.65.

Chart displaying Reversals and Targets for NFG

View this interactive chart on TradingView to see where the stock currently is for this idea.

DISCLOSURE: The algorithms and historical accuracy percentages mentioned in these articles are for reference only. Anything can happen in the future when it comes to market movement. Historical price action is not always indicative of future movement. Just because the signals may have a high degree of accuracy, they can always fail. Traders assume all risk to their assets when investing in short or long-term opportunities.

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